Election 2016: Clinton Likely to Win

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According to the data presented on FiveThirtyEight.com, “Polls Only Forecast,” Hillary Clinton has a 87.8% probability of winning the election. Hillary has a 91% probability of winning, if the election was held tomorrow, according to FiveThirtyEight. She only has a 77.6% chance of winning based on polls and historical data.

Drilling deeper into the “Polls Only” data …

Hillary has a greater than 99% probability of winning the District of Columbia and five (5) states, Maryland, Hawaii, California, New York, and Massachusetts.

She has:

  • a greater than 90% probability of winning 11 additional states.
  • a greater than 80% probability of winning six (6) additional.
  •  a greater than 70% probability of winning five (5) additional states,
  • a greater than 50% chance of winning two (2) more.

This would give her 372 electoral votes out of a possible 538. I would argue that this is a landslide, but “landslide” is a subjective term.

DC and the 22 states Hillary has a greater than 80 likelihood of winning would give her 271 votes in the electoral college – enough to win the White House.

  • The 99%: Washington, DC, Maryland, Hawaii, California, New York and Massachusetts.
  • The 90%: Illinois, Vermont, Rhode Island, Washington, New Jersey, Oregon, Connecticut, Michigan, Delaware, Wisconsin and New Mexico.
  • The 80%: Minnesota, Colorado, Maine, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.
  • The 70%: Nevada, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and North Carolina.
  • The 50:%: Arizona and Georgia.

Three states, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona have shifted from the “Likely Trump” to the “Likely Hillary” column between June 8 and today. Please note, however, that Georgia and Arizona are only 53% (Georgia) and 54% (Arizona) likely to vote for Hillary. Georgia has 16 Electoral College votes, Arizona has 11. These don’t matter for the outcome of the election but … John McCain is in Arizona.

A lot can happen in the 86 days between now and election day. But based on FiveThirtyEight.com’s analysis, assuming the polls are accurate and the methodology employed at FiveThirtyEight.com is reasonable and applied correctly, the only way Hillary doesn’t win is if a) she quits the race, b) a huge number of people don’t vote or c) the voting machines get “hacked.”

The next really interesting set of questions is what happens to down-ballot races. John McCain is running for re-election in Arizona. If his state actually swings to Hillary then he may be retired. One can only hope.

I’ve attached a spreadsheet with the data.

Probability of Hillary Clinton Winning Nov. 8
Electoral Probability Polls Only Change
State Votes On 7/21 On 8/13
Maryland 10 99.6 99.9 0.3
Washington, DC 3 99.9 99.9 0
Hawaii 4 99.2 99.6 0.4
California 55 96.5 99.5 3
New York 29 96.4 99.4 3
Massachusetts 11 97.1 99.3 2.2
Subtotals 112 6.0
Illinois 20 92.9 98.6 5.7
Vermont 3 90.2 96.9 6.7
Rhode island 4 90.5 96.7 6.2
Washington 12 84.7 96.3 11.6
New Jersey 14 82.1 96.0 13.9
Oregon 7 76.4 94.2 17.8
Connecticut 7 77.4 93.7 16.3
Michigan 16 75.1 93.0 17.9
Delaware 3 87.9 92.7 4.8
Wisconsin 10 72.8 92.6 19.8
New Mexico 5 75.6 91.8 16.2
Subtotals 101 11.0
Subtotals 213 17.0
Minnesota 10 69.8 89.3 19.5
Colorado 9 66.7 88.9 22.2
Maine 2 70.2 88.9 18.7
Virginia 13 62.3 88.6 26.3
Pennsylvania 20 60.8 88.0 27.2
New Hampshire 4 53.6 80.9 27.3
Subtotals 58 6.0
Subtotals 271 23.0
Nevada 6 54.3 78.1 23.8
Florida 29 51.9 77.4 25.5
Ohio 18 52.1 77.2 25.1
Iowa 6 52.2 73.8 21.6
North Carolina 15 73.8
Subtotals 74 5.0
Subtotals 345 29.0
Arizona 11 54.2
Georgia 16 52.9
Subtotals 27 2.0
Total 372 31

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